Finally, at the desperate urging of PM Netanyahu, the US on June 21, 2025, in a complex attack involving around 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, and one submarine bombed three Irani nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.
The US dropped fourteen 30,000 pounds GBU-57 bunker busting MOP (massive ordnance penetrator) at Fordow and Natanz and fired around 75 BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles, mainly at the Isfahan site.
The Virginia-based B-2s flew in two directions on takeoff, one component heading towards Guam for deception, and the other towards the Middle East. The sites already pulverised by the IAF revisits were described as 'obliterated' by President Trump.
Fordow, containing around 3,000 sophisticated centrifuges in two enrichment halls, was attacked through ventilation shafts at two points, and GBU-57s seems to have "severely damaged but not destroyed" it, as per US officials.
Iran claims the site was already evacuated. Natanz, the largest uranium enrichment centre, had earlier sustained 11 explosions in Israel's clandestine operation in 2020. IDF destroyed its above ground structures and electric supply on June 13. The US strikes extensively damaged its underground enrichment centrifuges.
The Isfahan complex, outside the ancient Isfahan capital, was a storage site for the near bomb-grade nuclear fuel. IDF struck its laboratories that convert Uranium gas into the substance needed to produce a weapon. IAF jets again targeted it on June 21, before the US bombing. Satellite images show extensive damage.
Israel's no-holds-barred illegality aside, the US attack on another country's nuclear sites was unprecedented, and sets a new normal by the sole superpower, that can and would be emulated in future conflicts with immense consequences.
It renders the sanctity of nuclear sites even during active hostilities, null and void. India Pakistan regularly exchange the locations of their nuclear installations to avoid even accidental targeting. This situation under Modi's India, following Netanyahu's template, now stands altered.
The question whether the US attack destroyed Iran's nuclear programme is debatable. The main site at Fordow is reportedly hardened using steel and concrete and is around 800 metres deep. It has uninterrupted and multiple sources of power for the thousands of humming centrifuges, that so far has provided Tehran with over 400 kg of Uranium (enough for some 9 nuclear bombs), reportedly enriched up to 60%, a little below the weapons grade enrichment of around 80-90%.
At that depth, even tandem employment of GBU-57 at the same point of application may not have caused the desired damage. Iran would have stored the enriched uranium safely elsewhere, and most likely shifted some critical infrastructure to other unknown, undeclared and undetected sites beforehand. So, it is safe to assume that Iran's nuclear programme is mauled, delayed but probably not eliminated.
So, the next logical step for the West Plus is to pressurise Iran to sign the much-touted nuclear deal, and force Tehran to agree to cap and roll back its nuclear programme. For this, Iran will continue to be threatened using all means, with or without the US involvement.
Iran was politically compelled to respond to the US aggression especially for regime survival, by considering: a) a limited and calibrated response, without undue escalation; b) escalating and targeting some of the 19 US bases in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and GCC etc; and c) blocking the Strait of Hormuz, carrying over 20% global oil flows, to upend the world energy market.
Iran wriggled out of its 'response dilemma' by hitting the sprawling Al Udaid US base in Qatar on Monday, pre-coordinated with Qatar and the US. This limited response avoided further retaliatory strikes and enables Iran to undertake legal, diplomatic and political recourse and advantage, subsequently during negotiations. On June 24, President Trump dramatically announced a complex ceasefire deal after extensive behind-the-scenes parleys during the 12-day crisis.
Israel emerged neither victorious nor unscathed from the relentless Irani hypersonic missile response, lately penetrating through its multi-layered AD system, comprising Arrow Missiles, David's Sling and Iron Dome.
The system, reportedly, showed signs of wear and tear, and suffered from non-availability of required munitions even with the US. This costly AD system (costing some 167 million USD per engagement) was swarmed, saturated and exhausted repeatedly by low-cost Irani drone and missile combos, in layers.
Deterioration of the AD situation was compelling IDF to let some missiles through, to focus on the incoming warheads against critical assets. The estimated percentage of such uncontested and otherwise penetrating ballistic missiles remained over 11% — very significant for a small country like Israel.
On June 23, immediately after the US strikes, Irani onslaught continued for the longest time — some 40 minutes. Iran also successfully targeted Israeli settlements on occupied lands, causing mass exodus of Jewish settlers.
Besides, many Israelis were fleeing to Ukraine, Poland, etc, to a not very warm welcome. Antisemitism spiked high for the 'child killers of Gaza' as reported by the international press. The over 600-day wars left deep scars on the already stressed Israeli state, society, psyche and armed forces. This exhaustion was to naturally lead to a ceasefire.
As a consequence, the regime in Tehran is more firmly entrenched for now, Iran's nuclear programme seems to have survived the strongest possible challenge, and its missiles proved decisive. The US-Israeli nexus does not seem to have achieved the intended military objectives of war.
This intense conflict again demonstrated, like the Afghan wars, the success of mass against technological superiority in a modern conflict. This carries profound lessons for countries like Pakistan. This conflict also validates the age-old dictum of 'might is right', demonstrating to the week that rules, regulations and statutes are only for them.
The strong can trample them with impunity. This war will, heretofore, intensify the race to acquire nuclear weapons globally, hitting at the very basis of non-proliferation. Iran may be restrained for some time, but a nuclear Iran in the mid to long-term is a reality, that Israel will have to live with, with or without the Ayatollahs in power.
For Pakistan, investment in drone and missile technologies, asset hardening especially the nuclear sites, counterintelligence, AD and PAF are critical now, like never before.
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